Will Twitter Predict Oscar Winners Like It Predicts American Idols?

People on Twitter have been known to leak news early or break news (think of Whitney Houston’s death or the death of Osama Bin Laden). In fact, others have gone as far with their Twitter theories in predicting the winner on American Idol by drawing conclusions based on number of followers each contestant has. Could there be something to it?

TweetReach seems to think so and last year they monitored the Twittersphere and predicted 4 out of the 5 big awards on Oscar nightbased on Tweets. The one they got wrong was Best Picture.

Based on TweetReach I’ve come up with the following predictions (these are not TweetReach’s official, just based off of their search):

  • Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer (The Help)
  • Best Supporting Actor: Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close)
  • Best Actress: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
  • Best Actor: Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
  • Best Picture: War Horse

Personally, I’d like to see Octavia Spencer win for supporting actress, Christopher Plummer for supporting actor, Viola Davis for The Help, Brad Pitt for Moneyball, and Moneyball to win best picture. I don’t think that Moneyball was the best film I’ve ever seen, but I don’t think any of the movies were GREAT. They were good, some I scratched my head over, but nothing made me walk out of the theater and go, ‘damn that was really really good, I can’t wait to go get that on DVD’. However, I did walk out of Moneyball and feel inspired to go watch a baseball game and root for the A’s.

And, mark my words,  if Tree of Life wins for best picture, I will quit the Oscars just like I quit Facebook because that film was a film for artists, not a film for the movie theater.

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About Tracy Sestili

Tracy Sestili is CEO and Chief blogger at Social Strand Media. She is also the author of Taking Your Brand from the Bench to the Playing Field -- Social Media Fundamentals for Business.